December 17th, 2009 by MWilhelm
I doubt the latest fall in H1N1 swine flu cases will warrant more than the briefest of mentions in the media, but this blog is there to report the good as well as the bad. And perhaps I should say the ugly, as I am typing this with a large amount of purple silicone goo in each ear. Before you wonder whether this is some strange BBC festive ritual, I am in fact having ear-pieces made for each ear – the clear plastic things which allow the editor or the director in the gallery to shout, cajole or bark instructions to me during live broadcasts.
Back to swine flu and there is more reassuring news today from across the UK. Cases of swine flu appear to be falling throughout the country. It means the second wave of the pandemic is on its way out, though there is still a chance of an upsurge in seasonal flu after Christmas.
Generally then, there is less flu about and most people who get it either are not aware they are infected or have a very mild disease. There were an estimated 9,000 new cases of swine flu in the past week in England, compared with 11,000 the week before. In Scotland there were around 8,000 cases, down from nearly 9,000 the week before. Cases are continuing to fall in Wales and Northern Ireland.
But there is another side to swine flu. In England there are more than 500 people in hospital with swine-flu-related conditions, more than 100 of them in intensive care. And there’ve been almost 300 deaths since the outbreak began in April. In the past week another 16 people have died across the UK. That’s a tiny number compared to what was feared. But Sir Liam Donaldson, the Chief Medical Officer said:
“You can take a cold statistical view and look at the 300 deaths and throw your hat in the air. Or you can look at the families who may not have a child or a father or mother around the table this Christmas. If we can prevent those deaths then that is a reason to throw your hat in the air.”
Only today, health officials in Scotland announced that a child had died after catching swine flu. The youngster, whose details have not been released, also had another health condition and was being treated in the Glasgow and Clyde Health Board. Of the 299 deaths, 56 have been in Scotland, 26 in Wales, 14 in Northern Ireland and 203 in England.
The numbers immunised against H1N1 swine flu continue to rise. I can’t give you UK-wide figures at present, because the four nations don’t collect their data in the same way, but I do have the statistics for England: three million people in the first priority groups have received the jab, including 101,000 pregnant women. 343,000 front line health workers have been vaccinated, about three times the number given the seasonal flu jab last year.
Two-thirds of primary care trusts in England have now reached agreement for GPs to immunise the under-fives and the others are said to be “very close” to signing up. The rise in immunisation may well help curb any third wave of swine flu.
As usual, have a look at the bold red line, which is good for showing trends and you’ll see that flu-like illness rates with GPs have fallen below the baseline threshold of 30.0 per 100,000. This simply confirms that there is not that much flu about.
After the emergence of the avian flu in south-east Asia six years ago he helped bring about an awareness in Whitehall of the potential threat to public health from flu pandemics. This eventually led to the stockpiling of antiviral drugs and detailed planning being put in place across government departments and the NHS.
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